MTT Strategy – Breaking the Bubble

Bubble Stage in Tournaments  

Bubble = When all remaining players in a poker tournament are in the money.  

Basing Decisions on ICM and ”Tournament Equity” During the Bubble   

A relatively new yet extremely important concept for playing tournaments optimally during the bubble is the ICM concept (Independant Chip Model).  This changes the emphais from making decisions during a tournament from that of cEV (chip equity) to a newfound principle $EV, also known as “tournament equity.”    

Understanding $EV (Tournament Equity) and cEV (Chip Equity) :  

In a normal cash game you will use the standard cEV chip equity function to make profitable decisions with positive expected value.  In tournaments however a different concept is required because of severa key differences to cash games. Firstly, in multi-table tournaments the value of each chip changes as the game progresses.  This can be explained because of the unequal structure of tournament prize distributions.  Imagine a a $100 buy-in tournament for example, where you start with 100 chips.  At the beginning of the tournament each chip will have a value of $1.  However, let’s imgine that we win the tournament with 20,000 chips and make $40,000.  According to basic maths the value of each individual chip is less than it was during the beginnig of the tournament.  We can determine then that the value of each chip continually decreases inbetween these stages – i.e. as the tournament progresses.  

The reduction in value of chips is a crucial concept because it means that basic chip equity functions in tournaments don’t work properly to determine most profitable play.  Imagine we are in  satellite tournament for example with 4 players left, 3 win a live package and there is a small stack with less than 3xBB.  Now, if a deep stack player shoves all-in and we have QQ it would obviously be +cEV to call him.  However, in the wider picture we would be risking our entire tournment stack and live package unecessarily because the short stack player will undoutbly be out soon.  It would be stupid to call – and this is based on principles of tournament equity.  

What is Tournament Equity?  

Tournament equity is the “true” expected value of each chip with regards to the tournament prizepool, your chip stack, and your opponents.   For example in a $1 MTT there are three players left at the final table:  

• Player A – 5,000 chips
• Player B – 2,500 chips
• Player C – 2,500 chips

• 1st place – $50
• 2nd place – $30
• 3rd place – $20

To calculated the true value of everyones chips, we need to use a good $EV calculator such as SNGWizard to automatically do this for us:   

 

Player A: (5,000 chips) = $38.33 equity.

Player B: (2,500 chips) = $30.83 equity.

Player C: (2,500 chips) = $30.83 equity.

  

The figures above now displays each player’s tournament equity.   

Making Profitable $EV Decisions in the Bubble Stage  

The reason I’ve taken the time to explainthe concepts above is because they are directly relevant to how you should play through the bubble stages of tournaments, and the correct decisions to call, shove or fold.  By looking at the expected value of $EV of calling players all-ins we can make better decisions based on the risks/rewards of tournament equity.  Basically, if the risks are too big, they will reduce our expected tournament equity; however if they are small enough it will be profitable play.  

Importantly, because the value of chips decreases in tournaments, it means the risks of losing your current chipstack is greater than the rewards of doubling up.  This specifically means we should be playing extremely tight during the run up to the bubble, because it’s usually negative $EV to call an effective stack player’s all-in unless we have far superior odds to beat him (e.g. 70%+).  This is a crucial concept to understand for bubble play, because even if you know you are a marginal favourite (e.g. 1010 vs AQ) touranment equity means it’s probably unprofitable to call..  

Overall, ICM is a very important concept for $50 MTTs and above, and you should invest in software such as SNGWizard if you want to further your game.  

Another Important Factor When You Reach the Bubble is Your Stack Size & Objective  

If you set out to win a tournament you should play more agressively, on the other hand if you’ll settle for an ITM finish then playing tight abc poker and avoiding confrontations with big stacks is pretty important.  The next most important factor in determing how you play should be your chip stack.  A healthy stack at this stage is around 30xBBs+ and if you have this you should continue playing tight-agressive poker and taking advantage of opportunities when they arise (value shoving a weak player or stealing the blinds off BB in later postion for example).  However, when you’re short-stacked (<10xBBs) your mtt strategy is limited and you either  need to hold out to acheive as high a finish as possible, or double up and jam your stack as early as possible.  You can’t sit around waiting for a monster and you also can’t afford to be paying to see the flop.  This is why your only option is to move all-in as outlined in this article moving all-in in tournaments.  

How to Take Advantage of Players after the Bubble Bursts  

Alot of tournament players loosen their game up when they enter the bubble  because they’ve reached their goal and afterwarsd most of them are playing a speculative game to see how far they get.   

Play a Higher Range of Hands and Call Small Stack Players’ All-in  

Taking advantage of loose player at the MTT bubble stage should be an imperative.  You need to realize that most short stacks with less than 15xBB chips are going to be jamming with up to 50% of their hands - far from unbeatable showdown hands.  Short stack hand ranges for going all-in include suited connectors, pockets, face cards and any Ace.  You need to adjust your strategy and loosen up to take advantage of these players by playing a higher range of hands (A10, KJ) and calling shorts stacks.  You’ll receive plenty of value for these calls because the blinds at this stage will be extremely high and even if you’re not a favorite calling a small stack’s all-in you’ll still tend to get favourable pot odds.   

The M-ratio and chip size of your opponents is also very important playing into the bubble.  If a player’s stack is so small he’ll be committed to the pot after he sees the flop, don’t be kicked off the pot by him shoving all-in.  It’s a sign of weakness not stregth, and picking up these kind of chips at this stage will be very useful when the table goes short-handed.  

Take Advantage of Tight Players During the Bubble  

Here’s where pro MTT strategy shines.  Remember that while it’s important to tighten up towards the bubble, it’s also very profitable to make early position steals and overbets.  Your fold equity highest during  bubble period because of ICM principles, and this which is why you should always grab the opportunity to jam your stack on tight tables.   

Look for the Best MTT Poker Sites recommended by our site.  

Want to Read Our Overlay Tournaments Guide? Find the best value games here: Overlay Tournaments.

Related posts:

1. Blind Stealing in Tournaments
2. Beginners MTT Strategy Guide
3. Middle Stage MTT Strategy
4. Final Table MTT Strategy
5. Playing Poker Tournaments to Win
6. 45 Man MTT Strategy
7. 90 Player MTT Strategy