Fold Equity

Filed Under Cash Game Strategy Comments Off on Fold Equity 
Play Where the Fishes are! Join 888 Poker!

888 Poker has one of the easiest to beat player pools. Don't join the sharks on PokerStars, play where the real fish are!

>>Beat the Fish at 888 Poker Now!<<

What is Fold Equity?

Fold equity is used to calculate the likelihood of folding someone off a pot when you raise.  It can be expressed as either a percentage or a decimal point.

For example let’s say we have QJ and our opponent has AK on a QQA board.  Our opponent raises out of position and we re-raise him double his initial raise.  Depending on the tightness and style of the player we could say there is a 20% chance that he will fold to our raise.

In this situation we have estimated that our opponent’s fold equity is 20% or 0.2.  However there is more we can do with this figure:

Using Fold Equity in Our Pot Equity Calculations:

You should already understand that “equity” in poker is basically just our chances of winning the chips in the pot – this is the same as our probability of winning.

In the example above with QJ on a QQA board we have just over 91% equity of the pot and our opponent has the remaining 9%.  These figures are calculated using a simple texas holdem poker calculator.

When we take into account folding equity however this figure changes.  Because we have now raised the pot and there is a 20% chance our opponent will fold, his chances of winning the pot have been reduced. 


Total Equity = (Fold Equity x Current Equity)

After our raise our opponent’s equity is now reduced to (0.05×0.2) = 1%  This means our opponent’s pot equity is now 1% and our equity has increased to 99%.  This figures means that we will win this pot from this point onwards around 99 times out of a 100.

Problems Using Fold Equity

The biggest problem with fold equity is that it’s a hypothetical figure which we have estimate for ourselves.  We need an extremely good understanding of our opponent’s post-flop range of hands and the likelihood of him calling to make this figure reliable.  Against a really loose opponent his fold equity might be only 10%, and against a tight opponent it could even be 30% – thus our calculation is just an estimate.

In conclusion, using fold equity to calculate pot equity above isn’t all that important. Fold equity is only really used as a “phrase” nowadays and it doesn’t need to be plugged into complex calcultions like above.  I only used the information above as an example of how fold equity “can” be used in the mathematics of poker.

Comments are closed.